What's the South Gonna Do?

It is confirmed today that the South Korean naval ship that sunk recently was hit by a North Korean torpedo, according to the Choson Ilbo daily newspaper. [Read an English translation of the article here.] The investigation team was able to deduce this from the torpedo’s propeller which has a serial number on it stamped with Korean characters in a font used by the Communist regime.

Even though it is confirmed that North Korea destroyed a South Korean vessel, the South is unlikely to retaliate. Even though South Korea’s armed forces are superior to that of North Korea, and although South Korea is backed by the United States, South Korea will avoid war at all cost. South Korea has build itself up to be one of the “Four Asian Tigers”: Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea. These are the new industrialized countries (NICs) of Asia. Korea has developed into an advanced economy, able to compete internationally with other first world countries. For South Korea to go to war means to risk its economic stability, something it would not do. South Korea is unlikely to retaliate because unlike South Korea, North Korea is spiteful and will actually go to war. North Korea has far less to lose.

The worst South Korea will do is refuse the North some aid. Every year South Korea sends tons of rice and other aid to its neighbour. This food is send to alleviate the terrible poverty experienced by the normal North Korean people. Unfortunately such aid is hijacked by the military and I doubt very much that the average North Korean benefits much from it.

I’d be curious to see how South Korea is going to react now that it is official that it was attacked. As I said already, they will probably do nothing much, but, who knows, maybe they’ll prove me wrong. Last month, the author of ROK Drop made some suggestions of what South Korea ought to do, apart from going to war, of course.